Auto loan rate history.

What's been driving auto loan rates

Auto loan APRs don't move in isolation. They track the cost of capital for lenders, which is set by:

• The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate. When the Fed raises or lowers, auto lenders follow with a 1–3 month lag.
• Treasury yields. Lenders fund auto loans by issuing asset-backed securities. The yield demanded by buyers of those securities tracks treasury rates.
• Used-car prices. When used-car values are volatile (as in 2021–2022), lenders price in collateral risk on top of the base rate.
• Delinquency trends. Rising 30-day or 60-day delinquency rates push lenders to tighten credit and raise APRs across the board.

How to use rate history when shopping

Two practical takeaways from the trend:

1. Don't try to time the trough. If today's rate is meaningfully better than what you're currently paying, refinance now. The savings between now and the hypothetical bottom-of-cycle are usually smaller than the savings you'd lose by waiting.
2. Lock when the trend reverses. If rates have been falling for several months and start to flatten, the cycle's likely turning. That's a good moment to lock in a purchase or refi rate.